2024 HVAC Industry Trends and Statistics: Tips to Stay Ahead
You have a lot of changes to adapt to as an HVAC contractor in 2024. Those include:
- Updates to HFC legislation
- Continued labor shortages
- New innovations in smart HVAC systems
- Changing customer expectations
We’ll help you plan for this big year. Keep reading to see the most important HVAC industry trends and changes you can expect in 2024—all coming from expert researchers.
You’ll also find advice on preparing your HVAC business for these changes.
HVAC customer spending trends
Inflation has reduced homeowner spending on residential HVAC
High rates of inflation hit homeowners hard last year—and many are still feeling the effects.
In 2024, residential improvements and repair in the U.S. will shrink for the first time since 2010. This could mean decreased spending for new residential HVAC equipment.
Still, 97% of new single-family homes in the U.S. have air conditioners. This means there are plenty of opportunities to sell HVAC service contracts that help homeowners keep their HVAC unit clean and tuned up.
New tax incentives for homeowners who install HVAC systems
The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act promises tax credits to homeowners who purchase energy-efficient HVAC equipment.
Homeowners can get up to $2,000 in tax credit for installing certain kinds of heat pumps. You can also help your HVAC customers get:
- Rebates or tax credits for installing energy-efficient equipment
- Reduced property taxes for buildings that meet sustainable building standards
- Tax deductions for using renewable energy sources
Commercial HVAC spending could increase
Developers in the United States are building more commercial spaces like malls, offices, and airports in 2024. This is driving more commercial HVAC sales.
The demand for air conditioning and heating systems in the commercial sector could grow at a rate of 7% from 2023 to 2030.
HVAC market statistics
These numbers show how the HVAC market is looking in 2024:
- The global HVAC market is valued at almost $168.65 billion in 2024.
- The U.S. HVAC services market is valued at $19.75 billion in 2024.
- Americans spend over $10 billion every year on HVAC repair and maintenance services.
- Researchers expect the HVAC industry to grow at a rate of 6.6% between 2024 and 2029.
- There were 140,024 heating and air conditioning contractor businesses in the U.S. in 2023. That number increased by 4.5% from 2022.
- 88.2% more water heater repair and maintenance businesses registered to Thumbtack in 2023.
Smart HVAC technology trends
More opportunities to sell smart thermostats
Homeowners who can afford a new HVAC system are spending more on smart HVAC systems than before.
But there’s still a large customer base that’s missing smart HVAC technology: aging homeowners. 77% of millennial homeowners invest in smart technology—but only 25% of baby boomer homeowners do.
Educate your older customers about the benefits of smart HVAC systems. A smart thermostat can improve their indoor air quality and save them 8% percent on utility bills.
Did you know? 40–70% of programmable thermostat users don’t use the automated heating and cooling schedule feature.
In your site visits and email marketing campaigns, educate your customers on how to get the most of a smart thermostat.
Geothermal and ERV systems are growing popular
More customers are aware of energy recovery ventilators (ERV). Without letting heat escape, ERVs improve indoor air quality and ventilation.
HVAC pricing trends
Supply-related pricing increases have slowed down
The 2021–2022 supply chain crisis caused intense price increases for HVAC equipment and steel products. Prices were rising by more than 100% year-over-year.
New HVAC regulations could drive up prices
Now, there are other conditions making HVAC equipment more costly for contractors:
- Legislation on HFCs
This means R-410A and R-134a refrigerants are getting phased out. Shortages in these refrigerants could lead to price increases.
- SEER2 regulations
Now that all HVAC units need to meet SEER2 and M1 Testing requirements, HVAC manufacturers like Daikin Industries and Trane are charging more for equipment (on average).
In 2024, dozens of major HVAC parts manufacturers have announced price increases ranging between 2% and 20%.
Now, the average amount that customers finance for HVAC equipment has increased 25–35%, depending on the region.
Pro Tip: Make price increases easier on your customers by letting them pay in installments. Learn how you can offer financing options directly in your HVAC quotes.
HVAC labor trends
Many HVAC workers are leaving the industry
HVAC workers are in high demand now—thousands are transferring to different occupations or retiring. In the U.S. an average of 37,700 new jobs will open up for HVAC professionals each year from now until 2032.
This isn’t just an HVAC trend. In a 2024 survey by the National Fire Protection Association:
- 30% of trades workers reported an influx in coworkers retiring.
- 40% expect their company budgets will be focused on increased hiring to replace or add jobs.
HVAC technicians are in highest demand in major U.S. states. In the next decade, the job market is expected to grow by 21% in Texas, 20% in New York, and 14% in California.
Gen Z’s attitude about trades careers looks positive
Many of the newly-opened positions in the HVAC industry could get filled by the youngest employable generation: Gen Z.
We surveyed 1,000 U.S.-based high-school and recent post-high-school-aged individuals (18-20) to hear their attitudes about careers in the trades. Here’s what we found:
- 75% say they’re interested in exploring vocational schools that offer paid, on-the-job training.
- 56% believe that “blue-collar” jobs have more job security than “white-collar” desk jobs.
READ MORE: See the full Blue Collar Report
Software trends for the HVAC industry
HVAC businesses of all sizes are using HVAC apps and software to run their businesses more efficiently. Did you know:
- Local businesses that added online booking systems to their website increased their revenue by 120%?
- Home service providers who have used Jobber since 2020 raised their average invoice value by 10% year-over-year?
Don’t be afraid to adopt new technology for your team. 46.4% of trades workers agree that digital tools will help increase communication methods. 70% are interested in trying new, diverse tools on the jobsite.
In 2024, you can expect that more HVAC businesses in your market will use software to manage jobs and client relationships.
Explore HVAC business software that helps you build proposals, dispatch, and get paid faster.